MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF GROWING PROTECTIONISM AS exemplified by the US-CHINA TRADE

Abstract

The world economy faces many uncertainties in 2025. Global trade conflicts may further intensify, geopolitical risks, especially the risk of war, will become more pronounced, and global economic growth may slow down. The beginning of Trump's second presidential term has brought more uncertainties to the future international economic and trade landscape. The differentiated economic structures and interests of Western developed countries have led to a certain degree of differentiation in the trends of their economic development. Asian countries generally have enormous growth potential. The expansion of BRICS has further increased their representativeness and increased their influence in global economic affairs. History tells us that if China and the United States work together, both will benefit; if they clash, both will suffer. Strengthening China-US cooperation meets the expectations of the whole world. For the world economy to achieve faster development, it needs a fair, open, transparent and rules-based world market. Without the cooperation of China and the United States, it would be difficult to form such a world market. International trade rules need to be constantly updated to adapt to changes in the world economy, and they also need guidance for China-US cooperation. New technologies and products such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing are constantly emerging and being updated. In order to prevent and control potential security risks and ensure the peaceful use of technology rather than abuse, China and the United States must cooperate to establish relevant rules and order.

There are no winners in a trade war and no way out for protectionism. The success of China and the United States will be an opportunity rather than a threat to each other. We hope that the United States and China will meet halfway, follow the direction outlined in the call of the two heads of state, uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, solve each other's problems through equal dialogue and consultation, and jointly promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations.